Career Transition

Promotion vs. Job-Hop Calculator

Compare staying for an internal promotion against taking an external move โ€” netting out forfeited equity, ramp risk, and 5-year cumulative comp to find your real break-even.

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Your Current Situation

Applied to each path's base before the one-time event.
Default: 5 years (one strategic cycle).

Path A โ€” Stay for Internal Promotion

Typical internal promotion: 5โ€“12%. The raise on top of your current base.
Months you continue at current base before the promotion lands.

Path B โ€” External Job-Hop

Typical external premium: 10โ€“20%. Labeled BLS/research heuristic โ€” use your actual offer. (BLS OEWS 2025 wage growth data; stylized employer mobility research)
Unvested RSUs, options, retention bonus you forfeit by leaving.
Months at reduced effectiveness in new role. We discount 25% of salary during ramp.
Annual cost of resetting tenure clock โ€” lower PTO accrual, vesting restart, etc. Expressed as % of salary.
New role has meaningfully worse benefits (health, 401k match, etc.)

5-Year Comp Comparison

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Path A โ€” Stay (5-yr cumulative)
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Path B โ€” Job-Hop (5-yr cumulative)
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Break-even external premium
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Equity forfeiture drag

Year-by-Year Cumulative Comp

Year Path A: Stay (Annual) Path A (Cumul.) Path B: Hop (Annual) Path B (Cumul.) Running ฮ”
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Continue Your Analysis

โš–๏ธ
Counter-Offer Decision Engine
AL-97 ยท Have a competing offer in hand? Model the counter-offer decision.
๐Ÿ”
Job Search ROI Tracker
AL-27 ยท Time, cost, and channel ROI of the job search itself.
๐Ÿ“Š
Raise-Ask EV Calculator
AL-135 ยท Model the probability-weighted value of asking first.

Export Results

Inbound: AL-135 raise_ask_record ยท Downstream: AL-97 Counter-Offer ยท AL-27 Job Search ROI