Compensation & Offers

Raise-Ask Expected Value Calculator

Model the probability-weighted payoff of asking for a raise before you ask. Know your EV, your recommended anchor, and the cost of staying silent.

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Your Current Situation

The salary you want to reach, not the raise amount.
If they counter, what fraction of the ask do you expect? Default: 50%.
Applied to whichever base you land on each year.
Years over which a raise compounds. 3 yr = one job cycle; 10 yr = long-run view.

Market Range Helper (optional)

Enter your market range to auto-set the Target Ask to the midpoint. Leave blank to set Target Ask manually above.

Probability of Outcomes

Assign your subjective probability to each outcome. Must sum to 100%.

25%
45%
30%
Probabilities sum to: 100%
Downside risk exists (asking could trigger negative consequences)

In most workplaces, asking professionally carries no real downside. Only toggle on if you have specific reason to believe otherwise.

Expected Value of Asking

Expected Annual Raise (probability-weighted)
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Lifetime EV over โ€” years
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Cost of staying silent
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Recommended ask anchor (+15%)
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Partial grant scenario (โ€”)

Scenario Breakdown

Outcome Probability New Salary Annual Raise Weighted Value

Compounding Value Over 3 Years

YearBase (No Ask)Base (Full Grant)Base (Partial Grant)EV Scenario

Scripted Ask Framework

A starting-point script based on your numbers. Customize with specific accomplishments and market data.

Anchoring heuristic: ask ~15% above your target to leave room for a counter, while landing at your goal.
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Export Results

Downstream handoffs: Promotion vs. Job-Hop (AL-136) ยท Counter-Offer Engine (AL-97) ยท Total Comp Suite (AL-01)