Roughly 10–15% of MBA applicants land on a waitlist. Your three options — stay on the list (hedged with a safety deposit), withdraw and commit to your admit, or decline everything and reapply next year — have very different expected values depending on the waitlist school's yield. High-yield schools (HBS, Stanford at 80%+) admit almost no one off the list; Kellogg-class yields (~40%) move dozens. This engine prices all three.