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WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT · AL-185 · #171
Counterfactual Haircut Adjuster
Gross placement counts flatter every program: some participants would have found a job anyway (deadweight), some placements just displaced another jobseeker (substitution), and cherry-picked cohorts inflate the headline rate (creaming). Enter a baseline counterfactual job-finding rate plus substitution and creaming sliders to net out the inflation and see the true, haircut-adjusted cost per outcome, piped straight into the Cost-per-Outcome Ladder.
Method: sequential net-impact discount (deadweight, then substitution, then creaming), standard workforce program evaluation logic (WIOA/DOL net impact framework). All rates user-entered, no fixed defaults asserted as fact.
Program data received from an upstream tool.
Program Data
Net Impact Sliders
30%
Share of enrollees estimated to have found work anyway, with no program (comparison-group / historical baseline you supply).
10%
Share of remaining net placements estimated to have displaced an equally qualified non-participant jobseeker rather than filling a net-new job.
15%
Discount for cohort selection bias: the program enrolled the most job-ready candidates, so headline placements overstate what an unscreened cohort would achieve.